Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.933084 2.023083 2.118529 2.227937 2.350721 2.485297 2.645423
2025-11-09 1.825118 1.939523 2.065235 2.215286 2.391874 2.596319 2.856100
2025-11-16 1.750353 1.879968 2.026016 2.205597 2.424774 2.689980 3.046519
2025-11-23 1.689570 1.829548 1.990381 2.192892 2.447595 2.767719 3.220705
2025-11-30 1.651998 1.802385 1.978354 2.205007 2.498636 2.882305 3.456039
2025-12-07 1.587177 1.738825 1.918065 2.151898 2.460035 2.872055 3.509669
2025-12-14 1.548028 1.703998 1.890503 2.137486 2.469644 2.926509 3.665035
2025-12-21 1.509205 1.667631 1.858875 2.115274 2.466030 2.960343 3.791227
2025-12-28 1.494638 1.660186 1.862640 2.138778 2.525829 3.091061 4.099927
2026-01-04 1.486530 1.660089 1.875222 2.174036 2.604038 3.257610 4.511024
2026-01-11 1.462203 1.638451 1.858789 2.168426 2.621755 3.329690 4.759257
2026-01-18 1.443575 1.623286 1.849971 2.172493 2.653557 3.427687 5.088166
2026-01-25 1.409757 1.588381 1.814830 2.139283 2.628431 3.429578 5.213095
2026-02-01 1.386613 1.566493 1.796100 2.128269 2.636568 3.490223 5.498560
2026-02-08 1.365875 1.547042 1.779827 2.119775 2.647699 3.557112 5.826840
2026-02-15 1.345307 1.527185 1.762244 2.108389 2.653097 3.613592 6.152553
2026-02-22 1.334133 1.519224 1.760374 2.119663 2.695808 3.747019 6.787994
2026-03-01 1.302467 1.483441 1.719342 2.071059 2.635708 3.668131 6.672313
2026-03-08 1.284508 1.465464 1.702380 2.057892 2.634676 3.710176 7.019711
2026-03-15 1.264875 1.444828 1.681181 2.037512 2.620109 3.722452 7.266334
2026-03-22 1.260346 1.444185 1.687635 2.059167 2.679130 3.899556 8.362563
2026-03-29 1.259479 1.448346 1.700813 2.091577 2.759522 4.140079 10.214616
2026-04-05 1.246658 1.436015 1.690262 2.086444 2.771630 4.223010 11.336976